IWM

2025-03-19: Climate Situation Summary (March-May, 2025)

Overview of the Current ENSO, IOD, and MJO Situation: According to global climate prediction centers[1], the ongoing La Niña event for 2024-25 is currently very weak and is expected to dissipate soon, transitioning to an ENSO-neutral condition (65% chance) by March-May (MAM) 2025. Forecasts indicate that sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Nino 3.4 region are slightly negative (La Niña-like) at present, with a shift toward near-neutral, though slightly positive, conditions expected through August 2025. However, longer-range forecasts for the September-December periods suggest a range of possibilities, from a potential return of La Niña later in the year to the gradual development of El Niño, or a prolonged neutral ENSO phase. As a result, predicting the climate patterns for the remainder of the year remains highly uncertain and challenging for now.

The IOD is currently at near-normal levels, and model forecasts suggest that, despite being slightly negative, it will still be within the near-normal range. The MJO is currently centered over Africa, and an active MJO pattern (enhanced convection with a period of increased thunderstorm activity and rainfall) is expected to propagate across the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent over the next two weeks. 

Climate Summary for March-May (MAM): Considering the historical relationships between ENSO, IOD, MJO, and climate patterns in Bangladesh, rainfall and pre-monsoon flash flooding are projected to be near to slightly above normal during the MAM period. Sea levels at Hiron Point are also expected to be near to slightly above normal. However, this summer is expected to be warmer than normal, with increased concern over the likelihood of tropical cyclones, as Bangladesh has historically experienced several cyclonic storms during ENSO transition phases, such as Cyclonic Storm Bijli, which struck on April 14-15, 2009.

Fig. 1: The typical behavior of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system during ENSO-neutral events (here we see atmospheric pressure is low in the warmer western tropical Pacific, and relatively higher in the cooler central/eastern tropical Pacific, and air moves from areas of high pressure to low pressure. This is known as the trade winds, flowing from the coast of South America toward the western Pacific Ocean).

Overview of the Current ENSO, IOD, and MJO Situation: According to global climate prediction centers[1], the ongoing La Niña event for 2024-25 is currently very weak and is expected to dissipate soon, transitioning to an ENSO-neutral condition (65% chance) by March-May (MAM) 2025. Forecasts indicate that sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Nino 3.4 region are slightly negative (La Niña-like) at present, with a shift toward near-neutral, though slightly positive, conditions expected through August 2025. However, longer-range forecasts for the September-December periods suggest a range of possibilities, from a potential return of La Niña later in the year to the gradual development of El Niño, or a prolonged neutral ENSO phase. As a result, predicting the climate patterns for the remainder of the year remains highly uncertain and challenging for now.

The IOD is currently at near-normal levels, and model forecasts suggest that, despite being slightly negative, it will still be within the near-normal range. The MJO is currently centered over Africa, and an active MJO pattern (enhanced convection with a period of increased thunderstorm activity and rainfall) is expected to propagate across the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent over the next two weeks. 

Climate Summary for March-May (MAM): Considering the historical relationships between ENSO, IOD, MJO, and climate patterns in Bangladesh, rainfall and pre-monsoon flash flooding are projected to be near to slightly above normal during the MAM period. Sea levels at Hiron Point are also expected to be near to slightly above normal. However, this summer is expected to be warmer than normal, with increased concern over the likelihood of tropical cyclones, as Bangladesh has historically experienced several cyclonic storms during ENSO transition phases, such as Cyclonic Storm Bijli, which struck on April 14-15, 2009.

Fig. 1: The typical behavior of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system during ENSO-neutral events (here we see atmospheric pressure is low in the warmer western tropical Pacific, and relatively higher in the cooler central/eastern tropical Pacific, and air moves from areas of high pressure to low pressure. This is known as the trade winds, flowing from the coast of South America toward the western Pacific Ocean).

2024-07-02: Bussiness collaboration Meeting with Synesis IT

On [Date], a significant business collaboration meeting was held between the Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) and Synesis IT Ltd. The primary focus of the meeting was to discuss potential ventures in the fields of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and smart technology.

2024-07-02: Contract Signing between PPA and IWM.

Payra Port Authority (PPA) and Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) signed a contract agreement on 27 March, 2018 to carry out the study entitled “Payra Port Capital Dredging –Technical Consultancy Support Services”. Commander Haider Jahan Khon Emon (H-1), psc, BN, Chief Hydrographer & Project Director, PPA and Mr. Md. Zahirul Haque Khan, Director, Coast Port and Estuary Management Division, IWM signed the contract on behalf of PPA and IWM, respectively. The contract signing ceremony was chaired by Commodore M Jahangir Alam, (E), NUP, ndc, psc, BN, Chairman of PPA. Commodore Md. Saidur Rahman, (TAS), BCGM, psc, BN, Member (Harbour & Marine), PPA was present in the contract signing ceremony.